4

Dec

A government of the 38% people, by 38% of the people, for 38% of the people

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Today's Edition

New Delhi, 4 December 2023

Shivam Vij

President Pranab Mukherjee made an oblique yet sharp observation about the Narendra Modi government in December 2019, when protests over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act were raging. Mukherjee said, “The Indian electorate has time and again conveyed to the ruling party that goes on to form the government, that yes, they may be entitled to form the government with a majority of the seats won, but they are also to take into consideration all those people who may not have voted for them. The mandate is to govern as a majority party with a stable government, but carry others with you.”

 

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a comfortable majority with 303 seats in the Lok Sabha last year, thanks to a 37.6 per cent vote-share. Let’s round it off to 38 per cent. The BJP’s allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won another 7 per cent or so, but the BJP’s treatment of the Shiv Sena (in Maharashtra) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (in Punjab) since then has shown the allies that the votes they bring don’t matter. Narendra Modi only has to ensure that he retains these 38 per cent voters. That’s a very good vote-share in a first-past-the-post system. It will easily ensure Modi’s re-election in 2024.

Modi’s politics, especially in his second term, is all about voter retention as opposed to voter persuasion. He’s not looking to gain new voters. If he can just retain what he has, that’s good enough for him and the BJP.

 

Shivam Vij is a write,  contributing editor, Associate analyst At Deloitte US

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